The winter of 2012-13 has abruptly changed since the last Winter Severity Index report in early February. Over 30 inches of snow has fallen in the last month in Northern St Louis County, with three storms in the 6-inch-plus category.

For northern forest whitetails, the going has gotten tougher.  All snow measurement stations are currently over the 15 inch threshold.

(Editors note: The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources measures the Winter Severity Index (WSI) by applying a point for everyday the temperature is below zero and applying a point for every day the snow is 15-inches or deeper. A typical Minnesota winter scores a WSI of about 120. Once the WSI begins to rise above that point, a winter is considered harsh, particularly if it reaches the 140 or 150 range.)

Winter severity, specifically snow depth and duration of snow cover, is the most critical factor affecting white-tailed deer survival in the northern forest.  Deer movement is now heavily restricted, especially up in the border country.  Deer are in heavy conifer cover.  With restricted mobility, wolf predation will increase as the tables have now turned against deer.  Until mid-February, deer had excellent mobility, and wolves were at a disadvantage, in all but the northern most parts of St Louis County. 

At this point, the WSI is still below average for our area (northern Minnesota). Because December and January were very open, with snow depths less than 6 inches (except north of Orr) winter’s effect on deer is still minimal at this juncture. This winter is going to end up a bit below average (WSI=120) in the Tower area and milder on the Iron Range.  With longer days and higher sun angle, south aspects will soon begin to open up and provide improved mobility and forage.

If winter and snow pack fade in late March, the 2013 fawn crop should still be a good one in most of northern St. Louis County.  And, last year’s (2012) fawns, the most vulnerable segment of the herd, should come through okay. Time will tell, but the prospects for this winter appear to be short, with warming temperatures and longer days on the horizon as March progresses into April.

By April 1 we will have a firm grasp the effects of this winter on our white-tailed deer population.  Antlerless permit area designation for the 2013 deer season will be made in mid-April.